Newcastle United dropped to 10th place in the corresponding fixture against Chelsea last season after a 3-2 defeat at Stamford Bridge.
It was deemed as a bad night for the Magpies and just five days later the season was written off in terms of crowning a campaign that had offered so much with a piece of silverware as Manchester City easily brushed Eddie Howe’s side aside. It left United well adrift of the Champions League places after the reverse in the capital and while they did manage to rally for the final few games, even seemingly celebrating a place in Europe after the last day of the season, the damage had been done on a season in which they’d finish seventh.
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Man City’s defeat in the FA Cup final to Manchester United ended hopes of a Europa Conference League place and for all the highs of the game at Brentford, a 4-2 win which culminated in celebrations with fans of clinching a possible place in Continental competition, Newcastle ended the season empty-handed.
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A defeat at Chelsea on Sunday could be dangerous for Newcastle as it could drop Howe’s team into the bottom half of the table going into November. It’s something United can’t let happen after what started as a rut threatens to turn into a slump.
The Blues may be able to make as many as 11 changes to their side after European action last night but there is still an opportunity for Newcastle in the Sunday clash. Like the corresponding fixture last season, progress in a domestic knockout competition follows soon after with Chelsea the opponents again next week in the Carabao Cup.
So it really feels like a defining period for Newcastle and Howe going into a crunch double header against Enzo Maresca’s side. After Chelsea last season, Newcastle won some of the games they should have succeeded in but stumbled in others with ultimately home draws against Everton and Brighton, plus defeats at Crystal Palace and then crucially at Man United costing them that place in Europe for a second season running.
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Ironically, as Newcastle find themselves in a position where they could slip into the bottom half, Howe feels his team go into Chelsea on the back of their best showing of the season in terms of performance if not the result against Brighton.
He said afterwards: “I think that’s the best we’ve looked, the most dominant we’ve been in a game and lo and behold, we have plenty of chances, don’t take them and concede a poor goal from our perspective from Brighton’s first real meaningful attack.
“Of course, we only have ourselves to blame for that. We need to look at that and analyse that, but the majority of the performance, especially in the early stages of the game, was very, very strong.”
For all Howe’s position has been questioned and debated by some fanzines and Youtube channels after Brighton he can still slam a 48% win ratio on the table, only bettered by Kevin Keegan in the Premier League.
Another trait of the Howe era is he always seems to deliver a big result when the chips are down. At the start of his managerial tenure on Tyneside he clawed a big win out of the bag against Burnley after a sticky opening of three games without a win.
Then just as the lights were going out, he earned a crucial and memorable win over Leeds after six matches without success and a painful FA Cup loss to Cambridge. Towards the end of that 2021/22 season, Howe’s team were hammered 5-0 at Man City but victories over Arsenal and Burnley would follow.
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That trend continued in 2022/23 as Newcastle finished fourth when it wasn’t all plain sailing. During a rotten winter run Howe went five games without a win including a Carabao Cup final loss to Man United, but then picked up eight wins from nine to all but qualify for the Champions League.
Last season he lost three early season games in the Premier League but picked up a 1-0 win over Brentford when it mattered. Going back to Chelsea last March, Howe’s team looked down, but they weren’t out completely.
Sunday’s game has a genuine feel of stopping the rot and even though Howe’s team are the bookies’ underdogs, he has a proven record for nicking a win when it is needed badly.
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