AS Newcastle United toiled away at Selhurst Park at the weekend, somehow claiming a point despite not recording a single shot on target, the need for transfer reinforcements was abundantly clear. And not just a tinkering around the edges either. After a succession of transfer windows in which the Newcastle hierarchy failed to make major improvements, this is now a squad in need of a major overhaul.
A lack of options at centre-forward. No top-class right winger. Issues that need addressing at centre-half. A chronic lack of depth that means players that were signed in the Mike Ashley era – Jacob Murphy, Miguel Almiron, Callum Wilson – remain Eddie Howe’s only options once members of his preferred starting line-up are unavailable. We’re not talking about one transformative signing here – Newcastle need a root-and-branch reform.
January is a notoriously difficult month in which to enact major transfer surgery, but over the course of the next two windows, there has to be a shake-up of the current resources. Newcastle haven’t just fallen away from the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in the last couple of seasons, they’re in danger of dropping behind clubs like Brighton, Brentford and Nottingham Forest, whose astute transfer policies have seen them improve year on year.
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The only way to change that is via recruitment, but as Howe was once again flagging up at the weekend, that isn’t going to be easy in a world where PSR rules continue to severely constrain Newcastle’s ability to spend. “Fully-fit Premier League strikers who can score goals will cost us an extortionate amount of money that we don’t have,” said Howe, when asked about his attacking plans for January. The money is there of course – it’s just that the Magpies aren’t allowed to spend it.
We can argue about the unfairness of the PSR rules until the cows come home, but despite Manchester City’s legal efforts, the reality is that the broad framework of the Premier League’s financial rules isn’t going to be dismantled anytime soon.
So, what can Newcastle do? Clearly, the long-term solution is to significantly increase the club’s revenue streams through improved commercial deals, new sponsorship agreements and a growth in matchday income. Increasing the capacity at St James’ Park, or building a brand-new stadium, has the potential to be transformative, but the completion of whatever scheme the club decide to go with could be a decade off. Annual income is growing, but not at a rate that could have major effects in the next couple of transfer windows.
Newcastle could decide to either break the rules, or at the very least, seek to exploit any loopholes that would push them to their limits. The club’s majority owners, the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, have sufficient funds to launch the kind of costly legal battles that Manchester City are currently fighting, and that have the potential to kill off PSR. Chelsea’s £76m sale of two hotels on their Stamford Bridge site was a controversial, but nevertheless creative, way to circumvent the financial rules. Is there nothing like that Newcastle could try?
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There might be, but since taking control more than three years ago, the PIF have proved extremely reluctant to rock the boat. Why? Perhaps because Saudi Arabia is on the verge of being awarded the hosting rights for the 2034 World Cup, a prestigious franking of the nation’s sporting and political status that appears to form the cornerstone of the regime’s footballing investment policy. As a World Cup host, Saudi Arabia does not want to do anything that could be construed as being detrimental to the global game. Taking on the Premier League in a high-profile legal battle would not be a good look.
So, that pretty much leaves Newcastle with one avenue to take. Sell in order to buy. It’s something the club’s leaders have paid lip service to in the past – Darren Eales and Paul Mitchell have both spoken of the need to be “good sellers” – but that they’ve yet to enact. Other clubs have done it successfully though, not least Brighton, whose sales of Moises Caicedo, Marc Cucurella, Ben White and Alexis Mac Allister for a combined £225m bankrolled the signings that have lifted the Seagulls to fourth in the table.
Newcastle could sell some of their fringe players, but let’s be honest, trying to find buyers for the likes of Murphy, Almiron, Matt Targett or even Harvey Barnes is not going to be easy, and the funds raised are hardly going to be transformative.
No, it’s time for Newcastle to bite the bullet and sell a prime asset in order to create an opportunity for major investment – and that means one of Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon or Alexander Isak.
I wouldn’t be selling Isak for £100m or so, largely because with Wilson, who is out of contract in the summer, and William Osula as the only alternative attackers, you’d have to spend pretty much all that sum on a replacement.
Newcastle already have central-midfield replacements for Guimaraes, who is a long-standing target for a number of leading clubs, including Paris St Germain. Sell him for £100m, bring in a proper defensive midfielder for a fraction of that sum and you’ll still have plenty of money to spend on the rest of the squad.
Alternatively, sell Gordon to Liverpool for £100m, play Barnes or Joelinton down the left-hand side and spend a major sum on a world-class centre-forward, while still having further scope to improve other parts of the squad too.
Selling a leading star is never nice. When Newcastle became the ‘richest club in the world’ they were not supposed to be a ‘selling club’. Sometimes, though, you have to take an initial step backwards in order to progress. Newcastle are in that position, and need to act accordingly.
