Supercomputer Predicts 2024-25 Europa League Winner Based on Current Form and First-Leg Results
As the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League approaches the decisive second legs of the quarterfinal stage this Thursday, anticipation is building among fans and analysts alike. A leading football supercomputer has run its latest simulations, factoring in team performance, first-leg results, home/away advantages, and current form — and has predicted the most likely winner of this season’s Europa League.
Let’s dive into the current state of the competition and what the data suggests.
Quarterfinal Matchups – First Leg Recap
Lyon 2-2 Manchester United
At the Groupama Stadium in France, Manchester United showed resilience as they clawed back to a 2-2 draw against Lyon. The Red Devils, under Ruben Amorim, looked sharp in attack, with Leny Yoro and Joshua Zirkzee finding the net. While Lyon proved they’re no pushovers, conceding two away goals puts them in a precarious position heading into Old Trafford.
Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
It was a nightmare start for Spurs at home as Eintracht Frankfurt struck just two minutes into the match, capitalizing on early defensive confusion. However, Ange Postecoglou’s men responded well, gradually growing into the game and grabbing an equalizer before half-time. Despite dominating large spells of the match, Tottenham couldn’t find a winner, and the 1-1 draw means Frankfurt hold the slight advantage heading into the second leg in Germany.
Rangers 0-0 Athletic Bilbao
A goalless draw at Ibrox saw both sides fail to break the deadlock, but Athletic Bilbao will now return to San Mamés with a slight edge. The Spanish side has been strong at home throughout the competition, while Rangers need to find a spark to pull off a result on the road.
Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Lazio
Perhaps the most surprising result came from Norway, where Bodo/Glimt stunned Lazio with a 2-0 victory. The Serie A side looked sluggish and were outplayed by the high-energy Norwegian champions. Lazio will need a major turnaround at the Stadio Olimpico to stay in the tournament.
Supercomputer Prediction: Who Will Win the Europa League?
Based on a comprehensive data model that simulates match outcomes thousands of times, the supercomputer has ranked the remaining teams in terms of their chances of winning the tournament:
1. Manchester United – 32%
2. Tottenham Hotspur – 21%
3. Athletic Bilbao – 15%
4. Eintracht Frankfurt – 11%
5. Lyon – 8%
6. Bodo/Glimt – 7%
7. Rangers – 4%
8. Lazio – 2%
Why Manchester United Lead the Pack
Despite a tough first-leg in Lyon, United’s attacking quality and solid home form give them a strong edge. The two away goals — scored by Leny Yoro and Joshua Zirkzee — make them favorites to progress, and the depth of the squad under Amorim means they are equipped to navigate the semifinals and final. If they advance, United are likely to face either Tottenham or Frankfurt — both of whom they’ve already outperformed statistically this season.
Tottenham’s Mixed Outlook
Spurs have the talent to go all the way, but their failure to win at home puts pressure on them heading into Germany. Eintracht’s early goal exposed defensive vulnerabilities, and while Tottenham equalized before half-time, they’ll need to be more clinical away from home. Still, Postecoglou’s team has shown resilience throughout the campaign, and with a slightly favorable draw if they progress, they remain serious contenders.
Dark Horses to Watch
Athletic Bilbao: With a strong home advantage and an organized system, Bilbao could quietly march into the semifinals.
Bodo/Glimt: After dismantling Lazio, the Norwegian side has proven they can compete with the big names. A strong showing in Rome would further raise eyebrows.
Final Thoughts
With the second legs looming on Thursday, drama is guaranteed. The supercomputer may have given Manchester United the edge, but as we’ve seen time and again in European football — anything can happen over 90 minutes. From tactical battles to individual brilliance, the Europa League continues to provide one of the most unpredictable and thrilling narratives in football.
Stay tuned — Thursday could reshape everything.
