AI PREDICTS EXCITING FINAL EUROPA LEAGUE GROUP STAGE TABLE AFTER 1000 SIMULATIONS
AI Predicts Exciting Final Europa League League Phase Table After 1000 Simulations
The Europa League league phase is only two matchdays old, but fans are already looking ahead to how the 36-team table might look when the dust settles. With the new Swiss-style format, every team plays eight matches against different opponents, and the top eight progress directly to the round of 16, while those finishing 9th–24th must battle through the playoff round.
Using up-to-date results and performance data, an AI-driven model simulated the remainder of the league phase 1,000 times to predict where each team is most likely to finish. The results make for fascinating reading, with English side Aston Villa emerging as clear frontrunners, while Nottingham Forest face an uphill battle to keep their campaign alive.
Villa Lead the Way, Forest in Trouble
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have carried their impressive domestic form into Europe, underlined by their 2–0 win away at Feyenoord on Matchday 2. The simulations give Villa a 76% chance of finishing in the top eight, with an average of nearly 33 points across their runs.
Traditional heavyweights Porto and Roma are also well placed, with Feyenoord and Red Bull Salzburg rounding out the top five most likely finishers. Further down, clubs like Lyon, Celtic and Rangers are projected to hover around the playoff zone, leaving their fate in the balance.
For Nottingham Forest, things look far less promising. After a narrow 3–2 defeat at home to Midtjylland left them with just one point from their opening two matches, the simulations place Forest 24th on average — giving them only a 5% chance of finishing in the top eight and a worrying 42% chance of being eliminated altogether.
Predicted Final Europa League Table (after 1,000 simulations)
Rank Team Avg Points P(Top 8) P(9–24) P(25–36)
1 Aston Villa 32.4 76% 24% <1%
2 Porto 30.5 66% 32% 1%
3 Roma 29.6 62% 37% 1%
4 Feyenoord 29.3 61% 37% 2%
5 Red Bull Salzburg 29.0 57% 40% 3%
6 Fenerbahçe 28.3 55% 42% 4%
7 Lille 27.7 51% 46% 3%
8 SC Freiburg 27.4 49% 46% 6%
9 Lyon 25.8 39% 53% 8%
10 Celtic 25.3 37% 54% 9%
11 Red Star Belgrade 24.7 33% 58% 9%
12 Real Betis 23.9 28% 60% 12%
13 Braga 23.8 27% 59% 13%
14 Celta Vigo 23.3 24% 62% 15%
15 Rangers 23.0 21% 64% 15%
16 VfB Stuttgart 22.3 20% 59% 21%
17 Bologna 22.1 18% 63% 19%
18 Midtjylland 21.4 14% 63% 23%
19 Basel 20.9 13% 62% 25%
20 Nice 20.1 10% 62% 29%
21 Young Boys 18.9 7% 55% 38%
22 Dinamo Zagreb 18.7 7% 55% 38%
23 PAOK 18.5 6% 55% 40%
24 Nottingham Forest 18.3 5% 52% 42%
25 Ludogorets 17.4 4% 47% 49%
26 Malmö FF 16.8 3% 43% 55%
27 Genk 16.3 2% 40% 58%
28 Panathinaikos 16.0 2% 37% 61%
29 Ferencváros 15.5 1% 36% 63%
30 Go Ahead Eagles 14.7 1% 32% 67%
31 Utrecht 14.6 1% 28% 71%
32 Sturm Graz 14.1 <1% 26% 74%
33 Maccabi Tel Aviv 13.5 <1% 21% 79%
34 Viktoria Plzeň 13.3 <1% 21% 79%
35 FCSB 12.7 <1% 17% 83%
36 Brann 12.3 <1% 15% 85%
The Bigger Picture
While Aston Villa, Porto and Roma look set for smooth progression, the middle of the table remains congested. Clubs like Celtic, Lyon, Braga, and Betis are separated by fine margins, and just one upset result could tilt the balance between automatic qualification, the playoff places, and elimination.
At the bottom end, clubs such as Utrecht, Sturm Graz, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Brann are projected to struggle, with more than 70% probability of elimination. Yet as the unpredictable nature of European nights has shown time and again, nothing is guaranteed.
Verdict: Aston Villa are in pole position to top the Europa League standings after 1,000 AI simulations, but with 36 teams in play and only two matchdays gone, there is still everything to fight for in Europe’s most unpredictable competition.